On Friday, February 3rd, Lorraine and I celebrated 33 years of marriage.

We spent Friday and Saturday up in Ottawa. We had a terrific time.

The folks at the Fairmont provided us a complimentary upgrade to the presidential suite — a wonderful and unexpected treat. The team at the Fairmont always treat us so well which is part of the reason why we book into their properties whenever we can.

We had a number of events planned in Ottawa. We dropped by to say hello to the Governor General. Stephen was good enough to join us for part of the tour. He is such a Canadian guy that Stephen.

We then made our way to the Canadian Aviation Museum to check out all of the aircraft. First time that I had been to this museum. Thoroughly enjoyed the afternoon.

We dropped by the parliament buildings later in the evening.

The following day we spent the morning skating the Rideau Canal.

I still find it hard to believe that we have been married for 33 years. The time really has gone by so quickly.

I am a very blessed husband to have such a wonderful wife.

Let’s see. The Old Farmer’s Almanac had this prediction about the 2011-2012 winter:

Winter temperatures will be about a degree C below normal, on average, with the coldest temperatures in late November, mid- and late December, mid- and late January, and early February. Precipitation and snowfall will be above normal in the east and slightly below normal in the west. The snowiest periods will be in early January, mid- to late January, and early February.

As of today, there is little evidence of any snow in the Kingston area. And unusually mild temperatures. This seems to be true for much of North America.

So what happened to winter? NASA climatologist Bill Patzert of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory tries to explain:

“First of all,” he explains, “we are experiencing a La Niña pattern of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This pushes the jet stream and the cold arctic air northward.”

“On top of that, this year’s Arctic Oscillation has been stronger.”

The Arctic Oscillation is a see-sawing pressure difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes. When the pressure difference is high, a whirlpool of air forms around the North Pole. Last year, the whirlpool motion was weaker, allowing cold air to escape from the polar regions and head southward to the US.

“This year the whirlpool has been more forceful, corralling the cold air and keeping it nearer the pole. That has reinforced the La Niña impact.”

Discover Magazine makes these reassuring observations:

But why?, you ask. Why have these [Arctic] oscillations been so weird? Unfortunately, Masters writes, we don’t really know why these variations happen. Addressing the elephant in the room — I’m looking at you, climate change — he says, “Climate models are generally too crude to make skillful predictions on how human-caused climate change may be affecting the AO, or what might happen to the AO in the future.” But he notes that there are links between solar activity and sunspots and positive values and between arctic sea ice loss and negative values. Whether this year’s strong positives are related to sunspots, though, isn’t clear.

We lost the web.

At the end of December, our Internet access went dark. There was enough bandwidth to handle very basic email but rendering even a simple web page took several minutes. Often the browser would just quit as the bits would take too long to come down.

We really have no options where we live. It is either Xplornet or nothing. And we were forced to move from the service we had been using for the past 3 years to a new platform. Technically, we are not yet connected to this new platform. But it is working now.

It was interesting to see how we fared without the Internet — or should I say with very limited Internet access.

Managing the Blog

Keeping this site current was almost impossible. I generally have far too many things going on during the day to take time to update the blog from an Internet connection at work. I usually write my posts at night and schedule them for release the next day. I was pretty much prevented from doing either.

Managing money and investments

Managing our money and managing our investments has become an online activity. Particularly the latter. Keeping track of our spending, trading securities and performing analytics all required a reliable and relatively speedy Internet connection. I was unable to access our online banking services and our online broker services.

Planning travel

I travel a fair amount on business and pleasure. We had several bookings that we needed to make: Quebec City, Ottawa, Toronto, Seattle, New York City. I also needed to arrange for rewards travel and book flights. I could get by with the telephone for the hotel bookings — although the New York City trip required more research. But Aeroplan charges a fee to book over the phone. I was able to get by on my iPad with a 3G connection. Although not much faster and certainly not all that reliable in terms of where we live, I managed to book the flights to New York and Seattle on the iPad. I literally willed the iPad connection to stay up as Aeroplan went into a prolonged state of “now processing your flight”.

Keeping current

As we are out in the country, we are outside the reach of traditional mainstream newspapers. I read several newspapers online: Globe and Mail, National Post, Washington Post, New York Times. I also scan my reader for the other news sources that I follow. I keep current with quite a few blogs. Without the Internet, I was quickly escorted into the dark ages. I started watching CNN.

Staying connected

Social media, email, planning and organizing projects with other people. I had to connect with people face-to-face to let them know that I was without the Internet and that I might not be able to be as responsive as normal. As a society, we have changed our expectations about the way we connect and the speed of that connection.

This dependency on the Internet is not necessarily a bad thing. I was just surprised at how significant it was to have such limited access to the Internet. The web has become so tightly woven into my life. So much so that when it was taken away, my life was impacted.

Winter has not taken its hold thus far. We’ve had a bit of snow, several dramatic shifts in temperature, lots of rain and now, on our 900-foot drive, lots of ice.

Because there was not enough snow to warrant a service call to clear the lane, we just packed the snow down with the weight of the cars as we drove in and out of our property. A significant thaw, followed by rain and then followed by freezing temperatures, transformed the lane into a skating rink.

Ice. Lots and lots of ice.

The temperatures went up again yesterday, plus 7 degrees Celsius, with more rain and the drive was best approached with skates. The ice pack is so thick that the rain acted as a proxy for a Zamboni machine, resurfacing the ice and making it very slick. Even my all wheel drive had a bit of difficulty getting up the hill.

As I have complete responsibility over my 900-foot road, I elected to treat the most challenging part of the hill with a de-icing agent.

The agent in question is packaged in 88-pound bags. Very easy for your typical consumer to handle.

To make the handling of the 88-pound bags even more enjoyable, the company elected to cover the outside of the packaging with a corrosive white powder. After handling the bags, most everything on your person becomes white. I suppose this makes it easier to become one with the snow. However, the acidic compounds that allow the material to dissolve ice are not recommended as a moisturizer for your skin. Removing the white powder from your outdoor clothing and from your skin simply rounds out the experience of securing the de-icing agent. I had yet to get it home.

At around ten in the evening, Lorraine and I had parked my car at the crest of the hill. How would we apply this particular de-icing agent? Particularly without any skates?

We used a wheelbarrow, a car, and several shovels.

We hauled an 88-pound bag out of the car and into a wheelbarrow. We slit the bag and emptied the contents. We turned the high beams of the car to illuminate the drive as it was pitch black and raining. We filled our shovels and, using an interesting dance technique — let’s call it the de-icing shuffle — we carefully slid along the ice, releasing the agent as we went along.

Treating the downhill portion of the lane was so much fun. In the dark. White powder everywhere. Slip, sliding away.

We repeated the process for each one of the 88-pound bags and called it a night.

On the way out this morning, the lane was once again filled with ice. If the de-icing material had made any significant impact it was not noticeable to me.

Here is to a sustained end of January thaw. Perhaps I will get lucky and the ice will melt down to the gravel. If not, I could always get a set of new tires.

I hope this post helps save someone a few hours of frustration trying to update their Drobo Second Gen to firmware 1.4.1 using FireWire.

I ordered my second generation Drobo on Friday the 13th. It was on sale from the Drobo store for half price and I received the unit within two days of placing the order.

Opening the Drobo packaging was a lot of fun. They created a nice experience and the unit was obviously packaged with care and thought. Very similar to opening the packaging of an Apple product.

Unfortunately that is where the similarity ended. Whenever I have turned on an Apple product, it just works.  When I turned the Drobo on, all I could see were red lights. My 3TB hard drives had failed. All of them.

It did not take me long to determine that the Drobo required a firmware update. Asking Google “does Drobo support 3TB drives” led me here. Okay, the firmware — version 1.4.1 — was released in October of last year. Not sure why my machine had a much older firmware version as I only received it two days ago but sure. Let’s get it updated and get the 3TB hard drives online.

Using the Drobo dashboard, I downloaded the firmware patch and applied the update.

“Update successful.” the Drobo machine informed me. “I will need to reboot for the changes to take effect.”

“Reboot away.” I replied.

Reboot unsuccessful. Red lights. Hard drive failure.

I love problem-solving. I always follow the same process. Which basically means I repeat the same set of steps. I hope for a different outcome. I’m not sure why. But generally, every time I follow the same set of steps I usually get the exact same result. And the Drobo did not let me down. Red lights. Always red. After downloading the firmware update several more times and rebooting the Drobo several more times, I concluded that a firmware release was not going to fix the problem.

Maybe all of the drives were bad?

Doubtful.

I searched the support pages again and found a post that suggested a manual update. Download the firmware file. Unzip the firmware file. Load the Drobo Dashboard. Control-click the “update firmware” section and select the downloaded firmware file. Apply the firmare update.

Reboot unsuccessful. Red Lights. Hard drive failure.

As I enjoy my conventional approach to problem-solving, I repeated the same set of steps several more times. And I achieved the exact same result several more times. And the Drobo did not let me down. Red lights. Always red.

Okay. What on earth is going on? Oh, yes. Repeating the same set of steps expecting a different outcome is a poor problem-solving process. Maybe I should think about a different approach.

It then dawned on me that there may be a way to check to see if the firmware had actually changed. I found a section on Drobo Dashboard called “status”. It gave the serial number of the Drobo and it gave the firmware version: 1.3.7. Huh? I had downloaded and applied the 1.4.1 firmware update no less than a dozen times.

I went back to the Drobo site and downloaded the release notes for the firmware update. I came across this little gem buried deep in the commentary:

Fixed Drobo firmware update failure when Drobo is connected via FireWire

Sigh. The Drobo was connected to my Mac via FireWire. I could have repeated the firmware update thousands of times without a change in outcome. Drobo does not apply firmware updates when connected via FireWire. At least not prior to this firmware update.

I connected the Drobo via USB to my Mac. Applied the firmware update.

After four hours, I had green lights.

Not a great first impression.

That said, the Drobo is now working fine and backing up my data. But really, shipping out new machines with old firmware? No mention on the support pages that you cannot use FireWire to update your old firmware until after you update to the new firmware?

That part is a big fail.

My Drobo arrived today.

I had to revisit my storage and archive strategy for my digital photography. With the growth in data from photography, I needed a more robust storage and archiving solution. The Drobo will offer me up to 16TB of virtual storage. And that should last me for a few years.

Hard drives fail

This happened to me on March 27, 2010. My primary hard drive on my primary computer failed. A catastrophic failure. A dead disk. Thankfully, my machine was fully backed up on Time Machine and it was remarkably easy to restore to a new computer without any meaningful data loss. Time machine had backed my data right up to the last hour.

Since that time, the growth in my digital photography has been dramatic and I had to move my photo library off the primary disk on my computer. Not enough storage on the internal hard drive.

Digital photography takes up a lot of space

Between Lorraine and myself, we can easily shot upwards of two or three thousand images a month. Off my camera, each image can take up to 25MB of space. As my oldest son tells me, I need lots and lots of the GeeBees. My digital images are all managed by Adobe Lightroom. I keep the catalog and the images on an external multi-terabyte Firewire drive. That drive is backed up to an identical external multi-terabyte Firewire drive which, in turn is backed up to a third multi-terabyte Firewire drive. The third drive is a RAID drive. The Time Machine backup of my computer is located on fourth external drive.

Very few people I meet have any form of backup in place for their computer.

Minimize the risk of data loss

Knowing that hard drives fail and then actually experiencing a hard drive failure highlighted the importance of backing up my data. Much of my life is captured in digital form through photos, recordings, and documents. I would like to keep those digital memories — particularly the photos — available for myself and my family.

The combination of external drives and the Drobo will help me minimize the risk of data loss by keeping the images on at least three storage platforms. Unlike prior years, I will have one of the storage platforms rotating to an offsite location.

One of my goals for the year is to scan all of our “paper” photographs. I really want to make sure that my children have digital copies of all of those wonderful moments in time. I would hate to do all of that work only to fall victim to a hard drive failure.

Rob Carrick, the Globe’s personal finance columnist, recently posted an article on his top ten money tips. Interesting perspectives but I thought he missed a few important points.

Save More.

“You have to save more because fat investment returns won’t be there.”

The personal savings rate for the third quarter of 2011 was 3.5 percent according to Statistics Canada. There seems to be a view that when you are scared, you save money and you spend less. Even with all of the scaremongering taking place in the world today, the consensus view is that Canadians may move the personal savings rate up to only about 6 percent by 2015.

What is missing from this tip is how much more Canadians should be saving. A 3 – 6 percent savings rate is simply too low even with “fat” investment returns. And there is a definite difference between saving and investing. You save for something, like a new car. You invest to grow wealth presumably for your retirement years. I assume Rob meant saving to invest. And if that is the case, a rate substantially above 3.5 percent is warranted.

Dividends Rule

“Quality dividend growth stocks rule.”

Unfortunately Rob does not highlight any quality dividend growth stocks. Perhaps he was hinting at Canadian bank stocks. That said, many Canadians have very little awareness of the stock market. They do not know how to invest on their own and they may not know how to start. Dividends may rule but a very important principle of managing money is do not place all of your eggs in one basket. Allocation and diversification are very important characteristics of a good investment plan. There is something to be said for holding bonds, real estate and cash in addition to dividend stocks.

Forget Early Retirement

“You likely can’t afford it, given our increasingly long lifespans and spotty commitment to saving. A recent Toronto-Dominion Bank poll showed the average age at which people hope to retire is 61. Talk about a rich fantasy life.”

Well, I guess our expectations are consistent with the Statistics Canada finding:

In 2000-2004, the median age at retirement was inversely proportional to educational attainment. The median age at retirement for those with a university degree was 59.8 years for men; 58.3 years for women.  The median retirement age for those with only elementary-level education was highest, with men retiring at 64.9  years, and women, at 64.6.

Most Canadians have retired in their early 60s. I’m not sure why he holds this one as a top ten money tip. For those wanting early retirement, they have likely planned for it over a long period of time and/or they have defined benefit pension plans that helped them to retire early. If they are not ready for early retirement, then the appropriate tip is to keep working and, more importantly, save for retirement.

Have An Emergency Stash

“Have a job-loss strategy in place: An emergency fund with three months living expenses is great, but even a fund that can carry the mortgage for a few payments is better than nothing. Keep your money in a high-rate savings account. Oh, and a line of credit can be helpful to bridge you over a period of money troubles.”

Yes. An emergency fund of about three months living expenses is a good idea regardless of a job-loss strategy. Unexpected expenses do happen. Using a line of credit as a bridge over a period of money troubles will likely just lead to more money troubles. That is not a great tip.

Don’t Count On Your House

“Housing wealth won’t get you through: Counting on getting a big whack of money from the sale of your home to help pay for your retirement? Consider two things: There’s more downside risk than upside potential for home prices in the near to medium term, and the price of buying a condo or bungalow is higher than you think.”

Industry Canada has a few things to say about housing assets.

The largest asset held by Canadians, on average, is their principal residence… Many consumers who do not own a home have very weak balance sheets… the ownership of a principal residence is strongly correlated with net wealth.

A better tip would be to clear off your mortgage as quickly as possible. Chances are that you will live in your house for a number of years and you will have equity with a house that you own free and clear even if a significant housing correction takes place.

Anticipate Another Dip

“An economic slowdown, if we get one, will be worse than the last time.”

Well, if we get one, it could be worse than the last time. Economic cycles are like that. Perhaps a better money tip would be to take advantage of the low interest rates to reduce debt quickly.

Watch Your Company Pension

“Keep an eye on your company pension plan.”

Given that less than 30 percent of all Canadian workers are covered by a defined-benefit pension plan, a better tip might be to keep an eye on your retirement savings including your company pension plan (if you are fortunate enough to have one).

Weigh Student Debt

“Taking on student debt has to pay off: To begin with, youth unemployment rates are about double the national rate. Next, add generational competition between 20-somethings trying to break into the work force and 60-somethings who want to continue working instead of retiring. It doesn’t make sense to rack up giant debts on courses that won’t give you an edge in this competitive work world.”

Not sure why this one would rank as a top ten money tip. But then again, I have been out of school for a long time now.

Have A Plan

“It’s go-to time for financial planners: Planners, people have never needed your help more. Rampant debt, low levels of retirement saving, guesswork investing – couldn’t a comprehensive financial plan offer a big fix? Of course, you’ll have to first sort out whether your business model is selling advice or selling investment products.”

Absolutely. A financial plan is a good thing to have. But do financial plans really change how people manage their money? Surveys consistently identify that the majority of Canadians do not have any financial plan. As a money tip I would add a key word: have an ACTION plan to improve your management of money. There are lots of resources on the web and in bookstores.

Keep An Eye On Fees

“The financial industry is hungry: What do banks, fund companies and investment firms do when profits are harder to come by? They get clients to pay higher fees and borrowing costs. Be vigilant about these extra costs. Complain to your firm or bank and then see whether you can get out of paying them because you’re a great catch as a customer.”

Perhaps Rob meant to say: keep an eye on your spending. It is not just fees and the hungry financial industry. A better money tip is to track your spending and to identify areas to reduce your spending. Make your money go as far as it can.

McKinsey recently released a report called The Emerging Equity Gap. You can find the report here.

Some of their key findings include the following:

• Investors in developed economies hold nearly 80 percent of the world’s financial assets — or $157 trillion — but these pools of wealth are growing slowly relative to those in emerging markets.
• ƒThe financial assets of investors in emerging economies will rise to as much as 36 percent of the global total by 2020, from about 21 percent today. But unlike in developed countries, the financial assets of private investors in these nations currently are concentrated in bank deposits, with little in equities.
• ƒSeveral factors are reducing investor appetite for equities in developed countries: aging populations; shifts to defined-contribution retirement plans; growth of alternative investments such as private equity; regulatory changes for financial institutions; and a possible retreat from stocks in reaction to low returns and high volatility.
• ƒBased on these trends, McKinsey projects the share of global financial assets in publicly traded equities may fall from 28 percent today to 22 percent by 2020. That will create a growing “equity gap” over the next decade between the amount of equities that investors will desire and what companies will need to fund growth. This gap will amount to approximately $12.3 trillion in the 18 countries McKinsey modelled, and will appear almost entirely in emerging markets, although Europe will also face a gap.

It looks like I may not be the only investor thinking about this strategy.